$100 or $200 is the real question now
ÔÇ£With Gold at $4,000, according to GoldFix interpretation of MSAÔÇÖs momentum indicator, that puts Silver handily above $52 per ounceÔÇØ
Silver: Entering a New Price Reality
In respected technician Michael OliverÔÇÖs latest MSA assessment dated September 28th and┬ásent to his subscribers┬áhe revises sharply upward expectations for silver over the coming months and into the first quarter of next year. The report identifies both price and long-term momentum as signaling a phase of vertical acceleration. The character of this move is described as ÔÇ£massive and jolting,ÔÇØ reflecting a full repricing of silver as a monetary and industrial asset. Her is our breakdown and analysis of a portion of that report
ÔÇ£The technicals of both price and long-term momentum are telling us whatÔÇÖs about to occur and is already underway: upside verticality. Massive and jolting.ÔÇØ
SilverÔÇÖs current behavior is being compared to two prior historical episodes: the late 1970s and the 2010ÔÇô2011 period. Both preceded explosive rallies in which the metal advanced several multiples within a handful of months. If those analogues hold, MSA expects silver to reach at least $100 per ounce (consistent with 2010/11) or potentially exceed $200 (similar to 1979/80).
ÔÇ£Either way, dynamics are now being triggered that indicate not only silverÔÇÖs price and momentum acceleration, but also massive gains vs. gold.ÔÇØ
Importantly, this prospective move is framed as structural rather than speculative. MSA rejects the notion of a temporary spike followed by collapse. Instead, silver is expected to establish a ÔÇ£new price reality,ÔÇØ where downswings occur but remain at significantly higher levels than the suppressed ranges of past decades.
Related: GoldFix believes $144 is a likelihood given SilverÔÇÖs addition as a critical mineral last month
Silver vs. Gold: Relative Performance Breakout
The spread of silver relative to gold is also breaking out on momentum metrics. MSA notes that while the spread has already taken out a downtrend (uptrend on our inverted chart) , the more significant event is the horizontal breakout above (below) repeated highs of the past several years.
Momentum has already confirmed this breakout, and MSA defers to momentum as the leading signal. In essence momentum already implies Gold Silver can/will trade to his level in orange above. With Gold at $4,000 that puts Silver handily above $52 per ounce
The implication is that silver is positioned to outperform gold, as was the case in 1979 and late 2010. Both historical precedents marked the beginning of rapid and disproportionate silver gains.
ÔÇ£This same kind of relative performance breakout was a major table-pounding lift-off signal back in 1979 and late 2010.ÔÇØ
MSA emphasizes that silverÔÇÖs acceleration will translate into ÔÇ£massive gains vs. gold,ÔÇØ reinforcing the view that the second monetary metal is entering a structural revaluation phase.
Historical Lookback: 2010ÔÇô2011 Dynamics
The report highlights the September 2010 breakout in the silver-gold spread as the catalyst for the explosive phase that followed. During that move, silver gained 130% by its April 2011 peak, compared to a 20% rise for gold over the same months.
MSA draws a parallel between that sequence and the current environment. The lesson is clear: relative performance breakouts in silver historically precede a short but extreme acceleration phase, with gold participating but to a lesser extent.
The firm also cautions against being misled by early corrections. In 2011, a sharp pullback in January convinced some that the top was in place, but the most powerful part of the rally followed. MSA expects similar corrective jolts this cycle, viewing them as bear traps designed to shake out late entrants before the main surge.
Our main assessment is that any such pullback will be a bear trapto flush out any nervous and late-joining longs.
Gold: The Mama Market
Gold remains the ÔÇ£mama marketÔÇØ in MSAÔÇÖs framework. The firm recalls its first major long-term buy signal in February 2016, which was based on an annual momentum range breakout. Since then, multiple intermediate and long-term buy signals have been registered.
The latest development is described as even more decisive. A twelve-year gradual uptrend parallel channel on annual momentum was broken last month, following a downtrend breakout earlier in March. Intramonth action has already surpassed the intramonth peak of 2011, while September is set to close at a new peak level.
ÔÇ£Recent action, after the stall since April, is declaring a lift-off even more so than prior upside moves did.ÔÇØ
ÔÇ£Old points of momentum reference are being waved goodbye to.ÔÇØ
MSA interprets this as the market entering a new phase, with prior benchmarksÔÇöespecially the 2011 highsÔÇölosing relevance. GoldÔÇÖs momentum breakout is aligned with silverÔÇÖs surge, reinforcing the broader structural shift across the monetary metals complex.
Much more is in his full report on Silver, Gold, and the broader markets including miners.
