La grande migration de l'or : A l'intérieur du mouvement massif des lingots

La grande migration de l'or : A l'intérieur du mouvement massif des lingots

In an eye-opening discussion, Scottdale Mint CEO Josh Phair reveals unprecedented movements in the global gold market, with massive amounts of physical gold being shipped to the United States from around the world.

The Unprecedented Gold Movement

Phair, who has over 20 years of experience in the metals industry, describes seeing an “insane amount of gold shipping” that began before Christmas. This movement represents a significant disruption to the traditional gold market.

“This amount of gold, no one on their own can move this amount. This is really big,” Phair explains, suggesting that only a government-level actor could orchestrate such a massive movement.

Exchange for Physical (EFP) Premiums Skyrocket

One of the key indicators of market disruption has been the dramatic increase in EFP premiums:

“We’ve seen this EFP over the last 3 months has been averaging 30 cents to $1.15 on silver, and gold has been averaging $15 to maybe $65 an ounce.”

These premiums represent the cost to convert paper gold contracts into physical delivery, and their elevated levels indicate extraordinary demand for physical gold.

Potential Reasons for the Gold Migration

Phair offers several theories for this unprecedented movement:

1. Tariff Risk: Initial speculation suggested a preemptive move before potential Trump administration tariffs.
2. Fort Knox Audit Preparation: Following Elon Musk’s public questioning about Fort Knox gold audits, there could be efforts to repatriate gold ahead of verification.
3. Monetary Reset Preparation: With Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s known interest in gold and comments about a potential monetary reset, this could signal preparation for a new financial order.
4. BRICS Currency Competition: Trump has warned BRICS nations against creating competing currencies backed by gold.

The Big Picture

The conversation touches on broader themes of economic transition, with Phair suggesting we may be entering a period of “detox” for the economy:

“Trump and Bessent had been very vocal… I feel like what they’re actually doing with axing capital flow within the government is a little bit deflationary.”

Phair suggests this gold movement might be part of positioning for an economic restructuring, potentially involving a return to some form of asset-backed currency system.

Global Power Dynamics

The discussion places these gold movements within a context of shifting global power dynamics, especially between the US and China:

“China has been saying I want it in my jurisdiction… Germany took I think eight years to get their gold out of England.”

Physical possession of gold remains significant in geopolitical positioning, with Phair noting: “In history, World conflicts… oftentimes gold is always the over… it moves in advance of war.”

Throughout the discussion, Phair emphasizes that while he doesn’t have all the answers, the scale and persistence of these gold movements signal significant changes in the global financial system that warrant close attention.